“In the end everything will be okay . . . and if it’s not . . . it’s not the end.” — John Lennon, 1980
TL;DR: BSW begins a “triggered” rebalancing today (Monday, June 16, 2025). A triggered rebalance means that our equity portfolio benchmark (the All Country World Index or ACWI) has gained +20% from our last rebalancing price. Yes, you read that correctly, the ACWI is up 20% from our last rebalancing on April 7, 2025. In layman’s terms, back in our April rebalancing we sold bonds to add to stocks/real assets/private equity, and now we are taking profits on stocks to add back to bonds/real assets/private equity.
Although Memorial Day, the unofficial start of summer, was just a mere three weeks ago, it seems the summer haze has already reached peak stage. Markets have adopted a languid pace. Trading volumes have thinned as participants’ attention shifts to summer breaks and vacations. July 4th (a Friday this year) will be here in a flash and further strengthen the quiet haze, setting the stage for August’s annual low volumes. Distracted traders, light volumes, and automated trading is the perfect recipe for heightened volatility and the “summer swoon.”
Despite the drumbeat of media negativity and unbeknownst to most, non-US markets have continued to notch impressive year-to-date gains (as discussed in our March 10 blogpost, here). Through this past Friday, Foreign-Developed Markets are up +18.01%; and Emerging Markets are up +12.27%. Meanwhile, US markets have clawed their way back into positive territory at +1.86%.
This is one of the fastest trough-to-peak triggered rebalancing’s that I can recall in my 23 years with BSW — and might be one of my favorites, too. Why? Because rather than feigned omniscience (no one, and I mean no one, can predict markets), this rebalancing is driven by a far more reliable superpower: Discipline. Informed by academic and professional research, our triggered rebalancing methodology is, in essence, a crystallization of the Buffett-adage, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” It’s also representative of another reliable strategy: Diversification. When US markets (or anything for that matter) are the “sure thing” it’s time for non-US markets to shine.
Meanwhile, as the summer haze takes hold and their readers and viewers head to the beach, the media will crank up the noise to try to keep what audience remains. Unfortunately, what gets clicks and shares these days is “outrage,” rather than news, so that’s what gets served. Weren’t we supposed to have a recession? Wasn’t inflation supposed to come roaring back? Isn’t AI going to cause the end of days?
So, do yourself a favor. Lean into the summer haze. Tune OUT the negativity and noise. This too shall pass. Tune IN the family and friends. Maybe indulge some good fiction, sci-fi, or adventure? Or just take a pause and BREATHE? Or leave your phone at home for the day? Rest assured that we’ve got our hands on the wheel. Remember that we only get so many trips around the sun, so enjoy the summer. THIS summer. And Make Life Better.
David Wolf – CEO
